The year 1874 was destined to be extraordinary. In addition to the Near East War and the Russo-Polish War, the Asia-Pacific region was also unstable.
First, the French signed the “Treaty of Peace and Alliance between France and Annam” with the Annam government, followed by the outbreak of the Japanese invasion of Taiwan.
The latter, unsurprisingly, ended in failure. The “Treaty of Peace and Alliance between France and Annam” sounds harmonious, but in reality, it’s just a nice-sounding name. Its essence still serves the purpose of colonial invasion.
After a long period of strategic retrenchment, some people within France grew restless. The world had already been carved up, leaving only some leftover scraps. Any slower, and there wouldn’t be anything left to claim.
Though the French government was entangled in internal power struggles and had little interest in external affairs, the domestic enthusiasm for colonial expansion could not be curbed.
Colonial expansion doesn’t always rely on military force. Take this treaty with the Annamese, for example. It was achieved through diplomatic deception, coaxing, and tricking the Annam government into signing it.
What seemed like an ordinary treaty actually provided a legal basis for France to interfere in Annam’s internal affairs. Regardless of how the Annamese felt about it, the French only needed a justification acceptable to the other European nations.
With Britain, France, and Austria already allied, the relaxed international situation gave France an opportunity to expand in Indochina.
Since Indochina wasn’t part of Austria’s colonial plans and didn’t affect its interests, the Austrian government had no reason to step in as a defender of justice.
...In the Vienna Palace, Franz’s attention was drawn to the Kingdom of Poland, becoming a mere spectator, watching the performance of Prussia and Russia.
Foreign Minister Wessenberg reported, “Two days ago, reinforcements from the Kingdom of Prussia arrived at the front, and yesterday they had a small skirmish with the Russian army.
However, both sides showed great restraint, as if they were putting on a show. The Russians have now occupied most of Polish Ukraine, roughly one-third of Poland’s territory.
The preliminary judgment is that this is likely the reward promised by the Prussian government to the Russians. Next, the two countries will probably sit down to negotiate and solidify the agreed terms.
As a result of this, earlier this morning, the British envoy sent invitations to all European countries, including us, proposing the formation of an international intervention alliance to mediate this war.
The British government can’t sit still anymore. The smokescreen we sent out earlier has worked. To curb our and the French’s expansion on the continent, the British can no longer hold back.”
The Russo-Polish War and the Polish royal election were major events, and both France and Austria were watching coldly from the sidelines. If that didn’t raise suspicions, nothing would.
It’s not like they had taken no action at all. Franz had been calling for restraint, suggesting that all parties sit down and negotiate. The French government had also warned both Prussia and Russia not to play with fire.
Concrete action? Unfortunately, both France and Austria were too busy to bother with these trivial matters.
The fact that neither France nor Austria was intervening implied that there was a deal in the background. A bit of analysis would lead the British to figure out what that deal was, and naturally, they had to sabotage it.
Would the British still be the British if they didn’t stir things up?
Franz nodded, “Now that things have come this far, we are going to face significant public pressure. The British are playing a chess game.
The government needs to be ready to steer public opinion properly. We can’t let the British control the narrative, or else there will be big trouble.”
Judging by all the signs, Franz suspected that the British wanted to provoke a Franco-Austrian conflict while also driving a wedge between Austria and the German Federal Empire.
It was an unavoidable open scheme. The French wanted to annex the Rhineland, and for the sake of political correctness, the Austrian government could only stand against it.
The German region had been divided for many years, and the various states had grown accustomed to ruling themselves. Under the pressure of nationalism, they had been forced to pretend to support unification, but in reality, they still wanted to preserve their independent kingdoms.
Austria was powerful enough to unify the German region, and the high-level officials in the various German states, to protect their interests, had no choice but to lean toward the Austrian government.
However, if they discovered that Austria could not unify the German region under the pressure of the great powers, or if they believed they were strong enough to break free from this threat, the situation would change.
This is much like what happened with the Kingdom of Prussia, which simply withdrew from the German region and no longer considered itself a German state, opting instead to pursue the idea of a Greater Prussian Kingdom.
Though Franz understood this, he could only respond passively. Even if the Franco-Austrian conflict did break out, there wouldn’t be much fighting.
The only area where the two countries shared a border was in Italy. Even though the French had occupied the Kingdom of Sardinia for many years, they still lacked public support there.
This was a lingering issue from Napoleon III’s time, when he had annexed the territory in an unseemly manner, leaving no legal basis for the takeover. Even after all these years, the local population still didn’t recognize French rule.
If they were to fight with Austria in Italy, it would be no different from a long-distance expedition deep into enemy territory. Not only would they have to fight the Austrian army, but they would also have to be wary of civilian guerrillas.
The leader of the Italian Independence League was the former king of Sardinia, a ready-made pawn. As long as the French didn’t move, no one could touch them. But if they suffered a major defeat on the battlefield, the fragile Second French Empire could collapse.
Overall, the longer the Second French Empire lasted, the more advantageous it would be for Austria. Not only would France help Austria bear international pressure, but it would also accelerate the national integration movement in Lombardy and Venetia.
Back when the Italian region had many states, the Italians in Lombardy and Venetia also sought independence, and national integration was not progressing smoothly.
However, since the French annexed the Italian region, the independence movement in Lombardy and Venetia had sharply declined.
This round of harsh realities had made many people wake up. Local capitalists no longer supported the independence movement and instead actively aligned themselves with Austria.
The spread of the Austrian language and culture in the region has accelerated in recent years. Newspapers, books, and advertisements on the streets were all Austrian, and the traditional Italian language was being abandoned.
Society’s attitudes had shifted. Without knowing Austrian, one would be looked down upon, and in the cities, it was impossible to get by without it. No capitalist would hire workers who couldn’t speak Austrian.
Before Napoleon III died, he had once tried to imitate Austria’s national integration policy, but unfortunately, he was forced to abandon it just as it began.
It’s not easy being a socialist emperor. Raising social welfare benefits inevitably increases financial spending.
In addition to financial issues, there was resistance from the Italian local governments. The French had forcibly annexed the Italian region but couldn’t replace all the local officials with French ones.
Without cooperation from local officials, how could the central government implement its policies?
This was different from Lombardy and Venetia. When Franz pushed for national integration, there were hundreds of thousands of Germans in the region, as well as nobles loyal to the Habsburg monarchy. Disobedient officials could be replaced, and there was no shortage of supporters.
In Italy, where everyone was Italian, how could the French government replace them? Even if they did, the new officials would still drag their feet. Establishing a government in the region loyal to the French Empire was not something that could be accomplished overnight.
The national integration policy that Napoleon III couldn’t implement would be even harder for Napoleon IV to carry out.
Without genuine national integration, the Second French Empire was a powder keg, ready to explode at any moment.
An enemy with such obvious weaknesses wasn’t intimidating, and with France having such a glaring flaw, Franz naturally had no fear of France growing too powerful.
...
The German Federal Empire itself had always been a joke, and Franz never considered this alliance to be a threat.
When the European powers forced the Confederation to be elevated to an empire, apart from the existence of monarchies within the German Federal Empire, the main reason was the fear that Austria might achieve unification through peaceful means.
No matter how much the British tried to sow discord, they couldn’t change the cultural ties between the two sides. The ruling class had to consider the sentiments of the people, and the Kingdom of Prussia could not escape the influence of German nationalism, let alone the German Federal Empire.
...
On July 16, 1874, in response to the call of the British government, European nations held an international conference in London to discuss resolving the ongoing Russo-Polish War and Near East War.
At the Austrian embassy in London, a secret meeting was taking place between Britain and Austria.
The British Foreign Secretary, Marquis Maclean, said, “Your Excellency, the world needs peace, and a stable Europe is the foundation of world peace.
When it comes to maintaining European stability, our two countries share the same interests. We now need your country to take more active measures and contribute to Europe’s stability.”
Austrian Ambassador Hümmel smiled slightly, putting down his coffee, “Your Excellency, we are also eager to work for world peace, but facts have shown us that world peace requires the collective effort of all.
Maintaining stability in Europe is the responsibility of all European countries, not just one or two. We have already done enough for Europe’s stability.
History has taught us that sometimes, doing too much can have the opposite effect. Occasionally allowing things to take their course might yield unexpected results.”
Undoubtedly, Hümmel was referring to the Metternich era. Back then, the Austrian government was a proactive guardian of European order, yet while Austria worked hard to maintain stability, Britain reaped the greatest benefits.
After the Napoleonic Wars, Europe enjoyed thirty years of peace, which provided favorable conditions for Britain’s colonial expansion overseas. Meanwhile, Austria, which had been focused on maintaining European order, found itself locked on the continent, unable to participate in colonial expansion.
It wasn’t until Franz ascended the throne and the Austrian government abandoned Metternich’s European balance strategy that Austria finally caught up with the wave of colonial expansion.
Maclean remained unmoved and said calmly, “That may not be the case. Letting the situation develop on its own also carries risks. If things get out of control, the losses for everyone will be even greater.
Rather than letting the situation unfold unpredictably, it’s better to take proactive action. Surely, your country does not wish to see France continue to expand.
If they get the Rhineland, I’m afraid Belgium will also be difficult to preserve, and even the German Federal Empire will be cut a slice.”
This was an inevitable outcome. With the resources of the Rhineland, France’s power would grow even stronger.
At that point, it would be nearly impossible to stop them from annexing territories west of the Rhine. For Austria, this crossed a red line.
Hümmel nodded, “No one in Europe wants to see that happen, and we are no exception. What plan does your country have in mind? If it can prevent such an outcome, we would be happy to cooperate.”
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