Holy Roman Empire

Plans couldn’t keep up with the changes. Watching the French government bicker endlessly without taking any concrete action, Franz had to admit that he misjudged the situation.

The table was flipped, but without the participation of the French, the main player, the situation didn’t develop as Franz had expected.

The French government seemingly staged a farce, but in reality, it was the choice that best suited French interests.

France now needed to keep a low profile, minimizing its presence as much as possible. If they jumped into the contest for the Rhineland at this moment, Britain and Austria, currently at odds, would immediately set aside their differences and work together to suppress them.

France was a powerful nation and shared a border with the Rhineland. Geopolitics dictated that this issue couldn’t bypass the French. By not taking a clear stance, the French government was instead being courted by various parties.

In the Vienna Palace, Franz shook his head helplessly as he looked over the intelligence reports.

Whether Austria had profited or lost by flipping the table was still unclear, but the Kingdom of Prussia had certainly gained something from this.

If they followed the British plan and suddenly stirred things up at an international conference, the only buyer for the Rhineland would be the German Federal Empire.

A forced sale would naturally fetch a lower price than having two buyers compete. It seemed that selling the Rhineland would solve the financial crisis in the Prussian government.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “Your Majesty, the Prussian government has already hinted that it’s willing to sell the Rhineland. Both Belgium and the German Federal Empire have shown interest.

However, Belgium lacks the support of the great powers. Unless they can secure French backing, even if the Prussians want to sell to them, this deal will be hard to complete.

The German Federal Empire has its own issues. In the Imperial Parliament, the question of the Rhineland’s status has already been raised. Many representatives from the constituent states have made it clear that the Rhineland must join the empire as individual states.

If it weren’t for George I adjourning the session in time, the parliament might have already made a decision, cutting off the possibility of direct central government control.”

(George I of the German Federal Empire refers to George V of Hanover. In the original timeline, Hanover had already been dissolved, so this monarch did not exist.)

It was clear that Wessenberg still regretted the fact that the German Federal Parliament was a step too slow. Had they already made a decision, Austria’s objective would have been achieved.

As for supporting Belgium in acquiring the Rhineland, that was just a smokescreen from the start. The reason was simple: Belgium was too close to France.

Without French support, Belgium might still have a chance to compete. But if they gained the backing of the French, they wouldn’t stand a chance at all.

The French weren’t doing charity work. If they supported Belgium, they would inevitably expect something in return.

If the Kingdom of Prussia sold the Rhineland to Belgium, and then Belgium turned around and handed over the region’s resources to the French, it would have all been for nothing.

From an industrial development perspective, the resources of the Rhineland were more valuable to France than those in Italy.

When Napoleon III took Italy, aside from increasing territory, population, and market access, there was almost no gain in terms of resources. In fact, it worsened France’s resource crisis.

Before occupying Italy, the French government didn’t have to worry about the energy needs of the region. But now, those problems had become France’s own problems.

France had to import hundreds of thousands of tons of coal from abroad each year, and that number would continue to rise as industrial development progressed.

In the short term, this might not have a noticeable impact on the French economy, but in ten years or so, France’s heavy industry would begin to fall behind.

In the original timeline, France became a “loan shark empire” because of its lack of domestic resources, which forced it to import from abroad, driving up industrial production costs.

As production costs rose, so did sales prices. This caused many French industrial and commercial products to lose their competitiveness in international markets, forcing capitalists to shift their focus.

In order to curb French power, any country that gained the Rhineland could not be pro-French—that was a fundamental principle.

Undoubtedly, the German Federal Empire was doing a better job in this regard. In diplomacy, it had consistently balanced between Britain and Austria, which was more reliable than Belgium’s wavering between Britain and France.

Prime Minister Felix said, “Let’s first see what Belgium chooses. If the Belgians are ambitious and want to build a strong country, and if they can say ‘no’ to the French, then giving them the Rhineland isn’t out of the question.

We also need a strong wedge to contain France, and it won’t work without a certain level of strength. Prussia was originally the best choice, but they’ve developed too quickly.

If it weren’t for the need to use the German unification strategy as a cover, allowing Hanover to acquire the Rhineland and integrate the German Federal Empire would have been a good option too.”

“To take something, one must first give.” Hanover’s integration of the German Federal Empire wouldn’t actually hinder Austria’s eventual unification of the German region.

Because when Franz felt the time was right to act, Austria would already possess world-dominating power and wouldn’t fear being ganged up on.

From a purely interest-driven perspective, the German Federal Empire was already something of a “chicken rib”—useful but not that valuable. Only by securing the Rhineland could it become truly worthwhile.

With so many states in the German region, if they were all included, the Imperial Parliament would be a lively scene. A large portion of the future central government’s energy would likely have to be spent mediating internal conflicts.

The German region had been fragmented for hundreds of years, and the people had long been accustomed to state politics. Add to that the influence of religion, any attempt to change the established rules would inevitably face backlash.

Someone would have to take the blame for this, or it would threaten the stability of the regime. The fact that even the German Empire in the original timeline couldn’t fully resolve this issue speaks volumes.

Prime Minister Felix wanted George I to bear this blame. After he got rid of the many smaller states, Austria could then step in and take the prize, avoiding much of the resentment.

Franz nodded and said, “This problem can’t be rushed. Acting too hastily would only benefit others. The national policy has been set, and we must proceed methodically.

Hastily changing plans is a grave mistake. This play must be acted out, at least for us to buy ten years of time.

By then, even if we’re exposed, we’ll already have established our position. Even if Britain and France want to disrupt things, they’d need the power to do so.”

Another ten years of patience was Franz’s minimum requirement. If possible, twenty or thirty years would be even better.

By then, the French would have fallen behind on their own, and both Prussia and Russia would have become sworn enemies. Even if the British wanted to stir up trouble, they wouldn’t be able to find allies to help them.

In the original timeline, the British government didn’t fully suppress the Americans and instead focused on fighting the German Empire. One of the main reasons was that they couldn’t find sufficient allies.

Thanks to Franz’s butterfly effect, the industrial revolution in this timeline was advancing much faster. Not only did electricity start to spread earlier, but the internal combustion engine is also being developing more quickly, with the diesel engine already invented.

Although still in the experimental stage and not yet ready for widespread use, it was a significant breakthrough in the power system. Once the power system reached a certain level, it would be time for the birth of the airplane.

The development of the air force would mark the moment when Austria could replace Britain as the global hegemon. It’s not that Franz was afraid. It’s just that the Royal Navy was too powerful, and trying to surpass them with naval power alone was simply unrealistic.

“To use one’s weakness against another’s strength” would be suicidal. The original timeline’s German Empire proved with cold facts that the British would never allow a competitor to surpass the Royal Navy.

Austria’s geographical position was better than the German Empire’s, but the fundamental issue of fighting on multiple fronts remained. Austria didn’t have the geographical advantage of dominating an entire continent like the United States.

The birth of the air force would change everything. Competing with the British in a new and emerging field? Franz had no fear there. Deploying air forces around the Mediterranean would secure the transportation lines between Africa and the Austrian homeland, thus stabilizing Austria’s position.

Austria’s population had already surpassed 75 million, close to that of the Russian Empire, and more than twice that of the British Isles. Its African colonies had another 10 million, and the longer time dragged on, the more pronounced Austria’s population advantage would become.

As an old empire, Austria was already a vested interest holder. It didn’t lack resources or markets, nor did it have a pressing desire to challenge the world order.

The responsibility of challenging the global order was better left to the new rising empires. Unless there was a soft target, challenging the world order was a high-risk, low-reward venture. More than 90% of the time, the spoils of war wouldn’t be enough to compensate for the losses suffered.

From a bird’s-eye view, the old empires weren’t the real enemies—new empires were the threat.

The best examples were Britain, France, and Austria. They were each other’s greatest competitors, and there were many tensions between them, yet instead of going to war, they formed an alliance.

The biggest issue was a lack of motivation to go to war. All three were vested interests with vast colonies under their control. Their empires were already overflowing, so who had the appetite to steal someone else’s?

It’s important to remember that wars have costs too. Since the First Near East War, wars between European nations have mostly been money-losing ventures.

Even for the Kingdom of Prussia, which gained large swaths of territory in return, it would take decades to turn a profit. In the short term, it was still a losing proposition.

From an investment perspective, wars between great powers were high-risk, low-reward investments, and naturally, such investments were unappealing.

...

London

Various nations condemned the Russian Empire for its invasion of Poland, but they faced a Russian government that remained unphased, like a “dead pig unafraid of boiling water,” rendering their efforts ineffective.

The Russians refused to withdraw their troops, and no European country was willing to send forces to intervene. This, however, didn’t stop the conference from continuing, and the legality of William I becoming King of Poland became the new focal point.

In simple terms, if the Kingdom of Prussia were willing to give up the Rhineland, William I would be recognized as the legitimate King of Poland, and even a union between Prussia and Poland could be made legal.

If not, it goes without saying. The imperialist iron fist would show everyone what legitimacy really meant.

Moral principles and justice were all but illusions at the London Conference. Little by little, everyone’s moral integrity sank further.

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