Holy Roman Empire

Time flies, and in the blink of an eye, winter has arrived again.

With his many years of experience, Franz could tell that this would be a mild winter. Usually, by this time of year, there would already be snow on Mount Grossglockner, but this year, there hasn’t even been much rain, let alone snow.

A mild winter and drought essentially meant that the next year’s agricultural output would decline. Austria was not only an industrial powerhouse but also a major agricultural nation, with agriculture playing a significant role in its national economy.

The Austrian government had always placed great importance on agricultural production. After years of effort, the country’s agricultural infrastructure had been perfected, and a comprehensive disaster response system was in place.

Typically, unless a disaster impacted the entire country, Franz wouldn’t personally intervene. What had drawn his attention this time was that the issue was occurring in Vienna.

Minister of Agriculture, Holz, reported, “Your Majesty, the situation is not too dire at the moment. According to monitoring data from various regions, the affected area is not very large.

The main impact is concentrated around Vienna and in the Bohemia region. These areas are relatively industrialized, and the population has a stronger ability to withstand risks. The reduction in winter wheat yields won’t have a significant effect.”

This was one of the benefits of the Industrial Age. In economically developed areas, it had become common for farmers to seek work in the cities during the off-season, which increased their income and, in turn, their ability to handle risks. Had this been an agricultural society, the government would have had to be more vigilant.

Franz had only asked out of casual concern. A certain degree of reduced crop yields was within Austria’s tolerance. There wouldn’t even be a need for disaster relief efforts.

A reduced harvest is not the same as a complete crop failure. Losing 100 or so catties per mu of land isn’t enough to bankrupt farmers. Unless the disaster is prolonged, government aid won’t be necessary. The people can manage the situation on their own.

...

Foreign Minister Wessenberg reported, “Your Majesty, we just received news from Paris that the French are preparing to send troops to escort Queen Isabella II’s son back to Spain, signaling the end of the Spanish succession issue.

Based on the information we’ve gathered, it seems likely that Britain and France have reached an agreement. The Foreign Ministry believes this is related to the Near East War, with the British government compromising on the Spanish succession in exchange for French support on the Near East Question.”

This didn’t surprise Franz. If the British wanted to preserve the Ottoman Empire, they would need to bring France on board.

Despite its internal strife, the French government also didn’t want to see Austria eliminate the thorn on their side. It was no surprise that the French chose to back the British in exchange for concessions on the Spanish throne.

Austria wanted a stable rear, and the French were no different. Spain was not like the Ottoman Empire. No matter what, the French couldn’t just remove that “thorn.”

It’s not a question of whether they could win, but that they have no way to use military force. European countries might accept the demise of the Ottoman Empire, but they would absolutely not allow Spain to be annexed.

Since Spain couldn’t be conquered, it was better to align with it. Spain was currently a mess, riddled with internal problems. Supporting a pro-French but weak government aligned perfectly with French interests.

Queen Isabella II of Spain had long been infamous, and her son, Alfonso XII, suffered from the same tarnished reputation. To secure his throne, he would be reliant on French support.

A weak, pro-French government would ensure that France wouldn’t have to worry about threats from Spain for a long time to come.

Franz said, “If that’s the case, then it’s time for us to wrap things up. Send a telegram to Hümmel. Once the British and French fully intervene, begin negotiations with the Ottoman Empire. Our bottom line is securing the territories we currently control, plus Jerusalem.

As for the Russians, have the Foreign Ministry reassure them. Whatever gains they can secure will depend on the Russian government’s own diplomatic efforts.”

Franz was well aware that this could be the last joint military action of the Austro-Russian alliance. Given the current international situation, an alliance between Austria and Russia was becoming more of a liability than an asset.

Although Alexander II was undoubtedly a brilliant ruler, keeping domestic factions tightly in check and completing initial social reforms, his diplomatic performance left much to be desired.

On the one hand, Russia’s historical burdens were too heavy. They clung to their position as the dominant power in Europe and failed to adjust their attitude in time. On the other hand, they placed too much importance on territorial gains, straining relations with all their neighbors.

It’s not that valuing territory is wrong. The problem was that much of Russia’s land was seized, more like colonies than integral territories.

When they were strong, they could get away with anything. But in times of decline, they should have been more careful and willing to make concessions when necessary.

Unfortunately, the Russian government didn’t do this. Their defeat in the last Russo-Prussian War was largely a diplomatic failure.

If the Russian government had reined in its ambitions, at least Central Asia and the Far East wouldn’t have become problematic. If not for their aggressive expansion before the war, they wouldn’t have provoked so many enemies, and Prussia wouldn’t have been able to gather allies.

Logically, after receiving such a blow, the Russian government should have awakened and actively improved relations with neighboring countries. Any issues could have been dealt with slowly after defeating Prussia.

Sadly, the Russian government did not change its mindset, seeing neighbors reclaiming lost territory as acts of invasion and viewing themselves as the victims.

It was no surprise that, by playing this way, Russia would have no friends. Franz suspected that in the next Russo-Prussian War, Russia would again face a coalition of enemies.

Because of the Austro-Russian alliance, Austria’s relations with these countries had also deteriorated. However, Austria was strong enough that, despite strained relations, it still enjoyed the status of a great power, and trade with other nations remained unaffected.

Prime Minister Felix reminded, “Your Majesty, perhaps we should notify the Russian government first, to give them some time to adjust.”

The Austro-Russian alliance wasn’t over yet, so it wouldn’t be wise to openly betray an ally. The success of the Near East War thus far was largely due to Austria’s provision of strategic materials.

If Austria were to withdraw from the war, the Russian government would be unable to bear the costs. The same strategic materials come at different costs for different countries.

For industrial powers with their own production capabilities, strategic materials are relatively cheaper. However, for agricultural nations that rely on imports, the expenses are significantly higher.

Take weapons and ammunition as an example: Russia’s costs were already a third higher than Austria’s during peacetime. During wartime, those costs could be as much as 50% higher.

Many factors contribute to these differences, such as production costs, transportation, procurement, and the efficiency of a country’s bureaucratic system.

If the Austrian government were to leave Russia hanging, the Ottoman Empire might not even need to make any concessions, and the Russian government would be forced to withdraw its troops.

Russia’s primary adversary was the Kingdom of Prussia, and the Russian government couldn’t afford to pour all its resources into a prolonged war against the Ottoman Empire.

By this point in the war, the Russian government had already achieved its strategic goal of weakening the Ottoman Empire. Even if the Ottomans were to rise from the ashes, they wouldn’t be able to pose a threat to Russia for at least twenty years.

Reminding the Russians didn’t require any real cost, so naturally, Franz agreed.

“Let the Foreign Ministry inform the Russians and pass on the news of Britain and France’s growing alliance. I’m sure the Russian government will understand.”

Even if they didn’t understand, they had no choice. Without Austria providing funds and materials, the Russian government simply didn’t have the resources to continue the war.

...

At the Prime Minister’s office on Downing Street, Prime Minister Gladstone was in a very foul mood, and with an icy tone, he said, “Laurel, gather the cabinet members for a meeting.”

Franz believed that the British had made concessions on the Spanish throne issue to preserve the Ottoman Empire, but in reality, the British government hadn’t made such a quick decision.

Austria was a threat, but France was also a threat. Allowing either one to grow too strong would endanger Britain’s interests.

Unless there was no other choice, the British government would not compromise with the French.

In the original timeline, Britain aligned with the Entente only after the expansion of the German Empire’s navy, which made them feel threatened. Prior to that, Britain wavered in its position.

Currently, Austria hasn’t been expanding its navy aggressively. Its naval power remained below that of France, with a total tonnage ranking third in the world.

From the British perspective, both France and Austria were significant threats. However, both shared a common weakness: they had to develop their land-based power simultaneously. With the two powers counterbalancing each other on the European continent, the pressure on the British government wasn’t too great.

...

Prime Minister Gladstone questioned angrily, “Lord Maclean, didn’t you tell me the French were too busy with internal strife to involve themselves in international affairs? So, what is this now? We’ve been keeping Austria in check, and meanwhile, the French directly intervened in the Spanish succession dispute. I can hardly imagine the uproar if this news gets out.”

Marquis Maclean was also at a loss, never expecting that the French, embroiled in internal conflicts, would suddenly pull such a move.

You had to admit, the French had chosen their timing well. With Britain and Austria at odds over the Ottoman issue, the two were preoccupied and had no time to interfere in the Spanish succession struggle.

“Prime Minister, this was a misjudgment on our part. We underestimated the ambitions of the French. Now that the situation is what it is, we must figure out how to handle it, or we’ll end up creating the biggest joke of the century.

Given the current circumstances, we must choose one of two paths. Either we ally with the French to save the Ottoman Empire or we ally with Austria and force the French to abandon their interference in the Spanish succession.

Personally, I suggest we prioritize saving the Ottoman Empire. The Spanish issue can be dealt with in the future. In politics, there are no permanent allies. Today’s Spanish government may be pro-French, but tomorrow they could be pro-British.

If the Ottoman Empire falls, it will be nearly impossible to revive it. Without the Ottoman Empire as a counterbalance, Austria would be free to expand into Central Europe, and the balance of power in Europe could be disrupted.”

There was also another reason Maclean didn’t mention: they had already started intervening in the Near East War. If they pulled out now, it would mean the intervention had failed, and the opposition would criticize them fiercely.

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