Holy Roman Empire

At the Russian command headquarters, Ivanov was basking in the joy of capturing Poznań. This was arguably the greatest achievement for the Russian army since the war began, with strategic significance rivaling the recapture of Smolensk.

A glance at the map made it clear that Poznań, located in the heart of the Polish Plain, was the most important transportation hub and industrial center between Prussia and Poland.

By occupying this key location, the Russian army had severed the main artery connecting Warsaw to its rear lines, leaving Moltke’s Prussian forces on the verge of becoming isolated.

A young officer hurried in and reported, “Marshal, we’ve received news from the front. According to airship reconnaissance, a large enemy force began retreating from Warsaw yesterday, numbering in the hundreds of thousands.

Their marching speed is very fast and suggests they may be the main force, but they appear to be traveling without heavy weaponry, so we cannot confirm this for now.”

Ivanov’s heart sank and he thought to himself, “This is bad, they’re trying to escape.” But he hesitated, knowing that Moltke was a master of deception, often employing unexpected tactics. There was no way to be sure whether this was a genuine retreat or a diversion.

Airships could only provide reconnaissance and had difficulty distinguishing whether the forces below were truly the main army. Warsaw still had a significant number of local troops, fully capable of masquerading as the main force.

Moltke had used this same trick during the winter campaign last year. In the recent Battle of Warsaw, he had once again deceived the Russian Fourth Army with a similar ploy.

However, Ivanov was unwilling to simply let it go. If the Prussian main force slipped away now, it would be much more difficult to encircle and destroy them in the future.

After a brief moment of thought, Ivanov made his decision, “Order the Seventh Army to immediately send cavalry deep into enemy territory to investigate and confirm if this is indeed the enemy’s main force.

Notify the Eighth Army to destroy the roads and bridges along the Prussians’ retreat route, ensuring they are prepared to intercept their westward escape.

Instruct the Ninth Army to head toward Poznań and join forces with the Eighth Army to carry out the interception. The Eleventh and Seventeenth Armies are to leave small defensive units behind while their main forces move quickly to reinforce Poznań.

Direct the Third, Sixth, and Seventh Armies to gather immediately. If it is confirmed that the enemy’s main force has left Warsaw, launch a full-scale assault on the city. The Fourth and Fifth Armies, which are currently resting, must prepare for battle and stand ready to reinforce the Warsaw front at any time.

Finally, order the Thirteenth and Fourteenth Armies to abandon their current operations and cut off all connections between the enemy forces in Warsaw and East Prussia.”

Ivanov remained the same Ivanov, not rushing into blindly pursuing the enemy despite the possibility of their retreat.

The Prussians, in their haste to flee, had left behind their heavy weaponry and equipment. If all the cavalry divisions stationed in the Warsaw area were dispatched, the chances of intercepting them would be quite high.

But the question remained, what would happen after they were intercepted?

The Russian Fourth and Fifth Armies in the Warsaw area were severely weakened, while the Seventh Army, having suffered heavy losses in earlier battles, was far from its peak fighting condition. The Third and Sixth Armies, although in better shape, had to cut their rest period short, and their combat effectiveness was also not at its best.

Even if these forces managed to pursue the Prussian main force, they lacked the strength to encircle and annihilate them. Furthermore, any pursuit would require first dealing with the Prussian forces still stationed in Warsaw.

Considering these risks, Ivanov preferred a more conservative approach. Intercepting the enemy at a farther location near Poznań.

This strategy, while more prudent, had a dismally low chance of success. The Polish Plain was vast and open, with no natural barriers to exploit. The enemy would have too many routes to choose from, making it nearly impossible to block them effectively.

Unless fortune smiled upon them, the Eighth Army would likely fail to stop the Prussians. Ivanov’s orders to reinforce Poznań were less about intercepting the Prussian main force in Poland and more about preventing their return to Prussia itself, which would also be an acceptable outcome.

True to his cautious style, Ivanov was more inclined to first eliminate the Prussian forces in Warsaw and then concentrate his forces for a decisive battle against the main Prussian army.

…

At the Vienna Palace, upon hearing the news that the Russian army had captured Poznań, Franz spat out his tea in shock.

His instincts immediately told him that something was amiss.

The strategic importance of Poznań was something Moltke couldn’t possibly overlook. No matter how stretched their forces were, such a critical location couldn’t be ignored.

Even if they lacked frontline troops, second-line forces should have been deployed to compensate. Yet, in Poznań, there were only three understrength second-line infantry divisions stationed, with just 7,000 soldiers defending the city of Poznań itself.

With such a small force, it was practically an open invitation to the enemy, signaling, “Our defenses here are weak—come and attack.”

Franz turned to Albrecht and asked, “What do you think Moltke is planning? Is he trying to lure the enemy in and set a trap to annihilate the Russian Eighth Army?”

Chief of Staff Albrecht chuckled and replied, “That might be part of the reason, but it’s more likely that Moltke wants to preserve his forces and get out of the quagmire that is Warsaw as quickly as possible.

The Russians have an overwhelming advantage, and the Prussian-Polish Federation stands no chance in a direct confrontation. To turn the tables, Moltke has no choice but to rely on unconventional strategies.

I’m not entirely sure what his specific plan is, but from a military perspective, abandoning Poland and stretching the Russians’ supply lines would indeed improve the odds for the Prussian forces.

The fall of Poznań also ties into historical issues. After the Vienna Congress in 1815, the area was assigned to the Kingdom of Prussia, but the local population has never truly accepted it.

More precisely, it’s the local capitalists, nobles, and intellectuals who are deeply dissatisfied with the Prussian government.

On the surface, the Prussian government’s national integration policies promote Germanization in the region, but in reality, the Junker aristocracy has monopolized most of the government’s benefits, leaving these later arrivals with little more than scraps.

In normal times, these grievances wouldn’t cause much trouble. But during wartime, it’s a different story, especially now that it looks like the Russians might emerge victorious. Naturally, these discontented groups are becoming more active.

Perhaps Moltke’s plan is to expose these hidden risks all at once, allowing him to eliminate them in one decisive move.”

“Drawing the snakes out of the hole and eliminating them.”

Franz was no stranger to such tactics. Political struggles are inherently ruthless. If someone cannot be turned into an ally, the only option is to eliminate them.

By this stage of the war, the internal contradictions within the Prussian-Polish Federation had reached a boiling point, needing only a spark to ignite an explosion. Since Poznań had become a liability, it naturally needed to be purged.

Glancing at the map, Franz couldn’t help but remark, “Moltke is truly ruthless. To abandon those hundreds of thousands of troops in Warsaw so decisively!”

There was nothing inherently wrong with this approach. As the saying goes, “He who is merciful has no place in commanding an army.” To win a war, nothing is off-limits.

Though it appeared that hundreds of thousands of soldiers were being sacrificed, the Prussian government wasn’t actually losing much. By now, the enmity between both sides was so deep that the Polish people would never surrender as long as there was hope.

Most of these troops were locals and wiping them out in a single battle would be nearly impossible. Without the ability to annihilate them completely, even a military victory would make post-war pacification extremely difficult.

As long as the Prussian government played its cards right, local guerrilla forces would inevitably emerge. Considering the atrocities committed by Cossack cavalry in Poland earlier, it was clear just how much the locals hated the Russians. A prolonged guerrilla war in the future was all but guaranteed.

Finance Minister Karl chuckled and said, “Your Majesty, Moltke probably had no other choice. Warsaw isn’t just home to hundreds of thousands of troops, it also has a massive refugee population.

With the war dragging on, these people cannot return home to resume production. The Prussian-Polish Federation simply cannot provide enough jobs, and the region is overwhelmed with refugees.

Preliminary estimates suggest that nearly three million people are relying on relief grain from the Prussian government, with about half having completely lost their means of livelihood.

Supporting over a million troops while also feeding millions of refugees is an impossible burden. Even with financial support from the British, the Prussian government’s finances cannot sustain this.

By abandoning Poland, they are also shedding this heavy burden. On this issue, the Prussian government likely played an unsavory role.”

Refugees are always a thorny problem. While Austria has indeed accepted large numbers of refugees, its colonial administration is no longer desperate for labor and has set up barriers. Language and literacy requirements alone disqualify the vast majority.

British and French colonies, as well as American countries, do welcome immigrants, but refugees need to pay for their own passage and figure out how to make a living once they arrive.

Franz nodded and said, “This is indeed a dilemma for the Prussian government, but it’s unlikely to trouble the Russians. They have plenty of experience in handling such situations, though it remains to be seen how Alexander II will respond this time.”

Relief efforts are out of the question. Most of these refugees were created by the Russian army, and even if the Russian government were to fund relief, it wouldn’t win back the people’s hearts.

Moreover, the Russian government isn’t wealthy. Alexander II is unlikely to invest resources into something so futile.

Mass killings would be a last resort, but given the scale of several million people, it’s uncertain whether the Russians would dare take such a step.

Expulsion may not be the best solution, but it’s the one the Russian government is most likely to adopt. Just as in the Second Near East War, when the Russian army drove a large number of Ottoman civilians inland, deliberately causing a famine that dealt a severe blow to the Ottoman Empire.

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