Holy Roman Empire

With the arrival of spring, gunpowder smoke once again filled the Eastern European battlefield. After a winter of preparations, the situation had changed significantly.

The Prussian government had organized the population to construct numerous fortresses and strongholds along the border. As a result, the Cossack cavalry’s mobility was restricted. If they wanted to plunder goods and resources, they now had to launch direct assaults on these fortifications.

The combat effectiveness of the Cossack cavalry was heavily dependent on incentives and spoils of war. With the population prepared and plundering becoming increasingly difficult, the casualties often outweigh the rewards, dampening the enthusiasm of the Cossack cavalry.

Proactive attacks and passive engagements produce vastly different combat outcomes.

Although the Cossack cavalry continued their raids, their results became increasingly meager. More often than not, they resorted to destroying farmland and infrastructure, as few soldiers were willing to take on well-defended fortresses.

This was no longer the Middle Ages. As long as there was money in the treasury, food could be purchased from elsewhere. The damage to border farmlands, while significant, was still bearable for the Prussian government.

In a sense, Wilhelm I should even thank the Russian government. It was precisely because of Russia’s ruthless tactics that the Polish population had no choice but to rely on Prussia for protection.

The decline in the Cossack cavalry’s destructive power did not mean that the Russian scorched-earth policy had failed.

In the face of war, humans are fragile. To escape the conflict, many border residents fled inland with their families, leaving large swathes of territory deserted.

It wasn’t that the Prussian government failed to stop them, but they simply couldn’t. The endless streams of refugees fleeing inland placed an enormous economic burden on them.

The coastal regions suffered the heaviest losses. Most of the port cities of the Prussian-Polish Federation had been reduced to rubble under relentless bombardment, and the few surviving cities trembled in fear.

However, these were merely secondary issues. Ever since the Danes had blocked the strait, the sea routes of the Prussian-Polish Federation had effectively been cut off, while the strategic value of the port cities had significantly diminished.

The worst setback was that the Russians had replenished their losses on the southern front, causing Moltke’s plan to capture Kyiv to fail. Now, the Russian government has adopted a highly conservative strategy, opting to wear down the Prussian-Polish Federation through attrition.

With a steady, methodical approach and direct frontal engagements, the Prussian army could not fully utilize its tactical advantages. Even with a brilliant commander like Moltke, the tide of the war continued to shift unfavorably for the Prussian-Polish Federation.

The grim battlefield situation had begun to affect domestic morale. Anti-war voices emerged sporadically, and even the most optimistic citizens could not help but worry deeply about the war’s outcome.

Berlin Palace

Wilhelm I roared in frustration, “At this stage of the war, we have lost 300,000 soldiers, yet gained so little in return.

You all promised me victory within three months, but now three months have passed, and then another three months, and soon a third set of three months will end, and yet there is still no sign of victory.

Can anyone tell me how much more must we sacrifice to win this war?!”

It wasn’t that Wilhelm I lacked composure, rather, the pressure he faced was simply overwhelming. The Prussian army’s performance on the battlefield had fallen far short of expectations.

The so-called “winning the war in three months” was essentially Moltke’s southern strategy. Theoretically, if they could cut off the trade routes between Prussia and Russia, they would have already secured most of the victory.

Unfortunately, the combat effectiveness of the Russian army turned out to be far stronger than anticipated. While they might struggle in open-field battles against the Prussian forces, their defensive capabilities were solid.

Moltke’s meticulously designed strategic plan wasn’t flawed in itself, the problem lay in the opponent it was used against. If it had been any other country, losing hundreds of thousands of troops in one campaign would have been a devastating blow. ꭆãɴóꞖĚs̈

But unfortunately, their opponent was the Russian Bear. The rate at which they inflicted losses on Russian forces was only marginally faster than the Russian government’s ability to replenish them. After a winter pause, the Russian government not only fully replenished their losses but even increased their overall troop strength.

With a resolute expression, Moltke forced himself to respond, “Your Majesty, the Russians are bleeding themselves dry to fight us. Their casualties exceed ours, and at this rate, even if they win, it will be a pyrrhic victory.

However, with their current battlefield advantage, the Russian government has no reason to pursue a mutually destructive strategy.

If we intentionally expose a weakness at the right moment, the Russians will certainly seize the opportunity. Once they adjust their tactics, our opportunity will arrive.

To secure victory, I suggest that, if necessary, we should consider abandoning certain territories temporarily to lure the Russian forces out of their fortified positions.”

On a battlefront spanning hundreds of kilometers and involving over a million troops, implementing a tactical adjustment would be an extremely difficult task. Simply coordinating between different units was a monumental challenge.

Organizational capability had always been a weakness of the Russian government. Even after Alexander II’s reforms, Russia’s military organization still lagged behind.

On the battlefield, victory often comes down to who makes fewer mistakes and whose mistakes are less fatal.

Currently, aside from their offensive on the central front, the Russian army remains on the defensive across other regions. By hiding behind their fortifications and refusing to engage, they might miss opportunities for decisive strikes, but they also avoid catastrophic blunders.

Moltke had no desire to engage in a head-on confrontation with the Russian main force on the central front. Doing so would neutralize Prussia’s advantage in mobility, reducing the fight to a brutal contest of overall strength.

Wilhelm I asked with uncertainty, “You intend to abandon Smolensk?”

Smolensk had long been known as the gateway to Moscow. Controlling it gave the Prussian army the strategic initiative to threaten Moscow directly.

Since the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, the Russians had fiercely defended Smolensk, ensuring the safety of Moscow and preventing the Prussian forces from splitting their army in two.

Moltke nodded gravely and replied, “Your Majesty, we have already tried numerous strategies, but the Russians refuse to leave their defensive lines.

A frontal assault would incur unacceptable losses and offer little strategic gain. Aside from abandoning Smolensk and luring the Russian forces deeper into our territory, it will be extremely difficult to break the current stalemate in the short term.”

Reality was harsh. The disparity in manpower between the two sides was simply too great. The Russian offensive on the central front had already tied down a significant portion of the Prussian forces, leaving Moltke with very limited reserves for maneuvering.

As a master of concentrating superior forces for decisive battles, Moltke found himself unable to execute his preferred strategy. The Russian scorched-earth tactics made any risky maneuvers even more dangerous.

Withdrawing forces from any front could displace tens or even hundreds of thousands of civilians, leaving them homeless and destitute.

If such sacrifices could decisively win the war, they might be deemed acceptable. However, this war is not one that can be resolved through one or two battles.

Eliminating tens of thousands of Russian troops might lead to the creation of hundreds of thousands of refugees. Whether that would be a net loss or gain is hard to determine.

Since sacrifices are inevitable, why not take a bigger gamble? If the enemy could be lured deep into their territory and the advantage of fighting on home soil could be leveraged to annihilate the Russian main force, then even massive losses would be justifiable.

“What are the odds?”

Wilhelm I hesitated. This move would be a gamble on the very survival of the nation. Victory could turn the tide of the war while defeat could spell the end of the Prussian-Polish Federation. In the worst-case scenario, even preserving a diminished Kingdom of Prussia might become uncertain.

Moltke responded calmly, “By abandoning most of Belarus and parts of Poland, shifting the battlefield to the Warsaw region, and rallying the Polish people to rise against the Russian invaders, our chances of success are at least 60%.”

War is, by its nature, a gamble. As the weaker side, the Prussian-Polish Federation having 60% odds of success was already a remarkably favorable outcome.

With a loud slam on the table, Wilhelm I made his decision, “We’ll gamble!”

“Marshal, proceed with your plan. The government will fully support your efforts.”

This wasn’t entirely a show of decisiveness on Wilhelm’s part, but there simply was no other option. At this stage of the war, retreat was impossible. The Prussian and Russian forces had to settle the matter on the battlefield.

Even if Wilhelm I had been unwilling to take such a risk, the Junker aristocracy would have made the decision for him. Just as in World War I of the original timeline, when the Russian Empire collapsed and Wilhelm II sought to end the war, the Junkers sidelined the emperor and continued fighting.

The current situation was much the same. With the outbreak of war, the military’s power had grown immensely, reducing the civilian government to little more than a logistics department for the armed forces. The balance of power had long since tipped.

As king, Wilhelm I was often forced to compromise with the military.

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