Holy Roman Empire

On July 16, 1880, after ten months of bitter fighting and at the cost of hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russian army finally captured Smolensk, sending shockwaves across Europe.

That night, the political world of Europe collectively lost sleep. Franz was no exception. If not for his years of experience as emperor, he might have convened an emergency meeting on the spot.

The strategic importance of Smolensk’s location made this battle anything but ordinary. With the Russians taking this fortress, they now held the strategic initiative.

The scales of war began to tip. Already possessing an advantage in national power, the Russians had now magnified their lead further.

After allowing himself a night of reflection, Franz convened a high-level government meeting the next day in the Vienna Palace.

To make the right decision, one must first ascertain the true situation on the Prusso-Russian front.

Over years of being Emperor, Franz had learned not to rely on historical precedents from his prior life. He preferred to base judgments on facts and avoided making decisions based on personal assumptions.

…

Chief of Staff Albrecht reported, “For the control of Smolensk, the Prussians and Russians together committed a staggering 1.87 million troops with 720,000 from the Prussian army and 1.15 million from the Russian army.

Preliminary analyses from our military observers indicate that the total casualties from both sides in Smolensk exceed 700,000, with approximately one-quarter killed in action. The exchange ratio between the Prussian and Russian forces is roughly 1:1.3.

It’s clear that both sides have poured their all into this battle, and the fighting has been extraordinarily brutal. Smolensk’s defensive fortifications were extremely well-constructed, so its sudden fall was completely unexpected.

We lack complete information and cannot definitively determine the real reason behind Smolensk’s fall. Based on reports of the Russians’ achievements, it seems the Prussian forces have suffered heavily, with over 120,000 soldiers captured.

However, some military observers have raised concerns. A disproportionately large number of the prisoners are elderly or otherwise unfit for active combat. They likely do not represent the Prussian main force, and may not even qualify as second-line troops.

We’ve confirmed with the military observation group sent to the Prussian army that about half a month ago, the Prussian army conducted a significant troop rotation. However, the operation was carried out with great secrecy, and our observers could not observe it up close.

If these reports are accurate, the “Victory of Smolensk” claimed by the Russians may lose much of its luster.

We’ve found no evidence of major Prussian movements. Neither the southern nor northern fronts have shown signs of a planned offensive. The true purpose behind the concentration of their main forces remains a mystery.”

The idea that the Prussian army deliberately abandoned Smolensk was hard for many to believe, including Franz himself.

From the situation on the battlefield, the Prussian army had no reason to abandon Smolensk. With the fortress defenses in place, even in 2–3 years, the Russian army might not have been able to capture it.

Under such circumstances, abandoning such a strategic stronghold, while sacrificing a large number of expendable troops, seemed completely unnecessary.

The strategy of “luring the enemy deeper” had been considered by some, but the cost was simply too severe. Even poorly trained expendable troops are still valuable national defense resources.

Franz asked, “Has the Prussian government engaged in any diplomatic activities recently?”

Franz couldn’t help but suspect something was amiss. The combination of Wilhelm I and Moltke was undeniably formidable, and for them to lose Smolensk so easily was clearly out of character.

If it wasn’t a mistake, it had to be intentional. Apart from “luring the enemy deeper,” another possibility was feigning weakness to garner greater diplomatic support.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg answered awkwardly, “Your Majesty, since the outbreak of the war, the Prussian-Polish Federation’s diplomatic activities have never stopped.

According to reports from embassies, the Prussian-Polish Federation’s ambassadors meet with political figures from various countries weekly, even in neutral nations like Switzerland.”

This response left Franz dumbfounded. What was supposed to be strategic diplomatic activity had somehow devolved into routine meetings.

Meeting with foreign political leaders every day, who knows if there have been any tangible results?

Sensing the emperor’s frustration, Wessenberg added, “Oh, by the way, not long ago, the Prussian-Polish Federation’s ambassador to the Ottoman Empire had a private meeting with the Sultan. The specific details are unknown.

The Prussian government has also been strengthening diplomatic ties with Central Asian countries and the Far Eastern Empire, seemingly with the intention of reorganizing an anti-Russian alliance.

So far, there’s no concrete news, but it seems the outlook isn’t very optimistic. These countries are riddled with internal problems and aren’t particularly motivated to oppose Russia.”

The last time an anti-Russian alliance was successfully formed, it was largely thanks to the British. The Prussian government had merely played a supporting role.

Times have changed. The Russian Empire is no longer Britain’s primary enemy, and the British government naturally won’t continue spending heavily to oppose the Russians.

Diplomacy comes with costs. Without sufficient benefits, why would anyone take the risk?

Whether it’s the Central Asian nations or the Far Eastern Empire, none have the courage to take a bite out of the Russian Bear. Simply preserving their own territorial integrity is already enough of an achievement for them.

From Franz’s perspective, trying to persuade these countries is less practical than lobbying the Japanese government, which at least has an adventurous spirit.

Of course, this holds little real significance. The Far East is too remote, even if Russia lost everything there, it wouldn’t significantly impact the Russian Empire’s overall strength.

The only forces truly capable of aiding the Prussian government are the Nordic Federation and the Ottoman Empire. Unfortunately, the former is being disrupted by the Danes, and the Russian government has made promises that make it impossible to sway them.

As for the latter, the Sultan is preoccupied with internal reforms. No matter how much he might want revenge against the Russians, his ambitions far outweigh his capability.

Prime Minister Felix commented, “If that’s the case, the likelihood of the Prussian government receiving substantial foreign aid is very slim. Britain and France cannot afford to commit indefinitely. They still have to consider how to recover their costs.

Can we assume that Moltke is repeating his old tactics, aiming to replicate the strategy used in the last war by abandoning East Prussia to stretch the Russian supply lines and lure them into a decisive battle?”

There’s no rule against reusing the same tactics. On the battlefield, any strategy, as long as it’s effective, can be employed repeatedly.

Whether the tactic is predictable or has flaws doesn’t matter. The core objective is always the same: to win the war.

Chief of Staff Albrecht responded, “This possibility cannot be ruled out. Strategically, it’s an open ploy.

Even if the Russian government is aware of the Prussian-Polish Federation’s plan, they can’t simply order their front-line forces to stop advancing just because of the risks.

However, while the plan is sound, whether it can be executed successfully is another matter. The risks involved won’t go unnoticed by the Russian military.

As long as they proceed cautiously, maintain a solid stance, and advance step by step without leaving the Prussian army any openings, the situation could turn out very differently.”

At this point, Albrecht suddenly chose to stop speaking. “Proceeding cautiously and advancing step by step” might sound simple, but it’s far from easy to execute.

The world has never been short of fools, and armies are no exception. Faced with tempting opportunities handed to them, can everyone truly resist the allure?

War must serve the overall strategy, but the opposite is also true as local issues can affect the big picture. As long as one area encounters problems, an otherwise flawless strategic plan can instantly become riddled with holes.

Albrecht held little faith in the Russian army’s ability to execute such a plan. It wasn’t just the Russians, no military of this era could ensure that all its officers possessed a comprehensive strategic vision.

Franz waved his hand dismissively and said, “That’s enough. Let’s leave this issue here. If the Prussian army’s strategy is indeed to lure the enemy deeper, it’s the Russian government that should be worrying now.

Of course, Alexander II might still be celebrating his victory. But I believe someone will remind him. After all, they’ve lost once before and should have learned their lesson.

For now, let’s focus on discussing how we should respond to the upcoming changes in Europe.”

As for a “long-term plan,” unfortunately, such a concept no longer existed. The Austrian government’s foreign policy had always been adjusted according to current realities, and every policy had a shelf life.

This time was no exception. The uncertainty surrounding the Russo-Prussian War required preparing multiple contingency plans.

Which specific plan to adopt would depend on how events unfolded. The ultimate choice would be the one that best aligned with Austria’s national interests.

…

After achieving a great victory at Smolensk, the Russian army did not stop to consolidate their gains. Instead, they pressed forward, seizing Minsk and setting their sights on Warsaw, the capital of Poland. The Russo-Prussian War seemed to be heading toward a decisive conclusion.

In the Russian Army’s main headquarters, Marshal Ivanov stared at the map in a daze. There was no trace of joy on his face despite the recent victories.

A middle-aged officer approached with a document in hand and reported, “Marshal, the Seventh Army has sent a telegram urging for logistical supplies.”

Ivanov turned around and paused before asking, “Where has the Seventh Army advanced to?”

“The Seventh Army is advancing along the Bug River and has already passed Sarnaki, less than 200 versts from Warsaw,” the officer replied.

Locating Sarnaki on the map, Ivanov studied it carefully before sneering, “Ahead lies open plains, and they’re almost at Warsaw, yet the enemy hasn’t intercepted them?”

Before the officer could respond, Ivanov continued, “Moltke’s appetite is truly enormous. A single army isn’t enough for him. Does he not fear choking to death on it?”

No one knows you better than your enemy. Moltke had gained fame during the previous Russo-Prussian War and naturally became a key subject of the Russian army’s scrutiny.

The intelligence in Ivanov’s hands was detailed to an almost absurd extent, jokingly claiming to know where Moltke attended preschool even though they weren’t common in this era.

Nevertheless, Moltke’s biography, interests, and military style had all been meticulously documented. Similar efforts were undertaken not only by the Russian government but by many other European nations as well.

With such thorough knowledge, it was natural for someone to develop countermeasures. The Russian army’s current strategy was specifically designed to counter Moltke’s tactics.

As events unfolded, the conservative strategy had proven highly effective. By relying on their numerical advantage and steady advances, even a military genius like Moltke was left with limited options, forcing him into his current tactics.

After a brief moment of thought, Marshal Ivanov gave his orders, “Order the Seventh Army to halt its advance, locate favorable terrain nearby, and construct defensive fortifications while waiting for logistical supplies to arrive.

Instruct the Sixth Army to advance into Lithuania. Command the Northwestern Front to launch a full-scale offensive, and have the Southwestern Front feign an attack in Volhynia…”

A series of orders were issued, but none directed an advance on Warsaw. Facing a cautious and steady opponent was always troublesome. Even though the Prussian forces had seemingly left their gates wide open, Ivanov decided to first eliminate the enemy on his right flank before pressing further.

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